Just a quick update post before the GMs finally decide to go to bed. Apparently, according to multiple sources, a Sale to D.C. trade is imminent. The package the White Sox are getting is believed to include Giolito and Robles, plus a little more. That's a pretty hefty haul, but Sale is under contract for 3 more seasons and he's pitched over 200 innings nearly every season, while pitching like an All-Star. Meanwhile, Giolito is projected to be a 3 starter to an ace (his stock dropped a bit last year so most expect him to be more of a 3 than a 1 but nonetheless the stock is still high) while Robles is projected to be a .280-.300 hitter in the majors with speed and a good glove in center. Both are solid prospects but such a trade makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons.
The first reason is that Robles had a great season in low A at the age of 19, which is awesome, but that's the only real data any team has on him so far. There's legitimate excitement about him being an MLB CF one day, but at the earliest that would be in 2018. Giolito is projected to max out at the skill level Sale is already at. 3 years of sale in exchange for more years of maybe at best Sale and maybe at best a solid CF is a trade I'll take any day. This gives the Nats a scary good rotation of Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg, Roark, and presumably Ross (until he gets dealt too). This makes the Nationals rotation amazing, which is a definite sign of a win-now mentality by Rizzo and the front office.
Now, the word on the streets is that the Nats weren't willing to give up Robles for McCutchen. With Robles presumably being in the package for Sale, the Nats clearly value Sale a LOT more than they value McCutchen. This doesn't mean that any McCutchen deal is off, but it does mean that it's much less likely to happen now. In response, apparently the Nats are asking the Rays about the price on CF gold glove maestro Kevin Kiermaier. Unfortunately for Rizzo, the asking price was apparently really high. I wouldn't in any circumstance trade a solid package to the Rays for Kiermaier that the Pirates would take for McCutchen. Both have team-friendly contracts, but McCutchen absolutely rakes while Kiermaier is above average. Kevin gets most of his value with his glove, which would solidify a suspect outfield including Jayson Werth. However, McCutchen can still provide a solid glove with much more offensive production. The Kiermaier rumors are still very fresh, so I don't expect a lot of news or development on this front for awhile. But it's interesting that the Nats are now looking for other, non-McCutchen options for their outfield
Monday, December 5, 2016
Winter Meetings
The GM winter meetings kicked off this morning and the general belief is that the Nats are gonna be one of the most active teams at the meetings. I'm gonna present some of the rumors here and my thoughts on them.
The first big rumor involving the Nationals is trading for Andrew McCutchen. He had what he calls an off-year last year but what other players would call an above-average year. He still hit over .250 with an OBP of over .330. The fielding metrics were down, but the general feel around the league is that he's at worst an average defender, at best a solid one. He's a former MVP and he still has two affordable years left on his contract. Normally the cost of such a player would be huge but with the Pirates seemingly in rebuilding mode and with McCutchen having the worst season of his career last year, he comes off as fairly affordable. This deal makes sense for the Nats for a lot of reasons. The first and biggest reason is that they'd have an elite hitter in their lineup for two years, the exact same amount of time they have Harper and Murphy under contract for as well. The Nats window of opportunity is these 2 years so going all-in makes a lot of sense. The other reason is that getting McCutchen pushes strikeout machine Danny Espinosa to the bench, where he has a lot of value.
Apparently the Pirares want Victor Robles, the Nats 19 year old top hitting prospect who plays CF and has often been compared to McCutchen. They're also eyeing another two solid prospect. I'll go more into what I think should be offered in a second because I believed the main reason this deal wasn't done yet is that I thought the Nats wanted to find a way to trade for both McCutchen and Sale. According to a report this morning, this is exactly what's happening. So onto Sale.
Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Much like McCutchen, he has multiple affordable years left on his contract but unlike McCutchen, he didn't have an off-year last year. In fact, much like every other year of his career, he was outstanding. As a result, the asking price has apparently been through the roof. The Nats are rumored to be the most active in Sale trade talks, as well as McCutchen trade talks, and since both teams want prospects, I'm sure Rizzo is trying to find a way to get both teams to agree to trades for prospects that don't overlap.
Here's what I think the Nats should do: go for it all. They only have two guaranteed years left of Bryce Harper and winning a ring before he hits the open market could go a long way toward convincing potentially one of the greatest baseball players in history to stay in D.C. What do I think they should give up? I think for McCutchen a fair deal would be Robles, Lopez, and Freede. Lopez throws extremely hard and wasn't rocked in the majors last year so people believe in him a lot. Freede is still a young AA pitcher with solid potential so he's another good prospect. Dealing three solid prospects isn't easy, but I think it's a no-brainer to trade three potentially solid MLB players for one solid OF that could potentially go back to his elite level. For Sale, the price is going to be much steeper. I think the Nats have to throw Giolito, Ross, and another two solid prospects in. This is a huge haul for the White Sox, especially considering most scouts rate Giolito AT WORST as a #3 starter in the majors. But I think making these trades, while clearing out the farm system, makes the Nats one of the deepest teams in baseball.
The other big question for the Nationals at the winter meetings is how they're gonna figure out the closer situation. They've reportedly offered Melancon a 4-year deal, but so have the Giants and the Giants number is reportedly close to the $60 million he wants. I think he signs with the Giants because the money and rings are there. The Nationals can then realistically either go with a combination of Kelley/Glover as the closer next season, or make a trade. The Royals could be sellers and Wade Davis only has one year left on his contract, putting pressure on the front office to deal him if they don't expect to compete next year. Since he's a one-year rental, he shouldn't be too terribly expensive. I think a couple decent prospects gets that deal done. Such a deal would be extremely tricky, with the Nationals currently stuck on McCutchen and Sale talks, but I think if he's still available once the dust settles, I expect Rizzo to give the Royals a call.
A quick interesting rumor running around is that the Nats are using the recently acquired Derek Norris as trade bait and, if he's traded, are willing to sign Wieters to be their catcher. This makes a lot of sense because, unless Melancon somehow signs back in D.C., Rizzo is fixing his team solely through the trade market. This saves the Lerners a lot of money, which could result in them being willing to overpay for Wieters in order to get a solid catcher. I don't think this would happen this week but it's worth keeping an eye on. Also keep an eye on Gio Gonzales and Espinosa, as I'm sure Rizzo can find a way to use them both as trade chips provided he can get McCutchen and Sale. Rizzo has a lot of pieces to work with to get big trades done and I expect him to do so sooner rather than later.
The first big rumor involving the Nationals is trading for Andrew McCutchen. He had what he calls an off-year last year but what other players would call an above-average year. He still hit over .250 with an OBP of over .330. The fielding metrics were down, but the general feel around the league is that he's at worst an average defender, at best a solid one. He's a former MVP and he still has two affordable years left on his contract. Normally the cost of such a player would be huge but with the Pirates seemingly in rebuilding mode and with McCutchen having the worst season of his career last year, he comes off as fairly affordable. This deal makes sense for the Nats for a lot of reasons. The first and biggest reason is that they'd have an elite hitter in their lineup for two years, the exact same amount of time they have Harper and Murphy under contract for as well. The Nats window of opportunity is these 2 years so going all-in makes a lot of sense. The other reason is that getting McCutchen pushes strikeout machine Danny Espinosa to the bench, where he has a lot of value.
Apparently the Pirares want Victor Robles, the Nats 19 year old top hitting prospect who plays CF and has often been compared to McCutchen. They're also eyeing another two solid prospect. I'll go more into what I think should be offered in a second because I believed the main reason this deal wasn't done yet is that I thought the Nats wanted to find a way to trade for both McCutchen and Sale. According to a report this morning, this is exactly what's happening. So onto Sale.
Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Much like McCutchen, he has multiple affordable years left on his contract but unlike McCutchen, he didn't have an off-year last year. In fact, much like every other year of his career, he was outstanding. As a result, the asking price has apparently been through the roof. The Nats are rumored to be the most active in Sale trade talks, as well as McCutchen trade talks, and since both teams want prospects, I'm sure Rizzo is trying to find a way to get both teams to agree to trades for prospects that don't overlap.
Here's what I think the Nats should do: go for it all. They only have two guaranteed years left of Bryce Harper and winning a ring before he hits the open market could go a long way toward convincing potentially one of the greatest baseball players in history to stay in D.C. What do I think they should give up? I think for McCutchen a fair deal would be Robles, Lopez, and Freede. Lopez throws extremely hard and wasn't rocked in the majors last year so people believe in him a lot. Freede is still a young AA pitcher with solid potential so he's another good prospect. Dealing three solid prospects isn't easy, but I think it's a no-brainer to trade three potentially solid MLB players for one solid OF that could potentially go back to his elite level. For Sale, the price is going to be much steeper. I think the Nats have to throw Giolito, Ross, and another two solid prospects in. This is a huge haul for the White Sox, especially considering most scouts rate Giolito AT WORST as a #3 starter in the majors. But I think making these trades, while clearing out the farm system, makes the Nats one of the deepest teams in baseball.
The other big question for the Nationals at the winter meetings is how they're gonna figure out the closer situation. They've reportedly offered Melancon a 4-year deal, but so have the Giants and the Giants number is reportedly close to the $60 million he wants. I think he signs with the Giants because the money and rings are there. The Nationals can then realistically either go with a combination of Kelley/Glover as the closer next season, or make a trade. The Royals could be sellers and Wade Davis only has one year left on his contract, putting pressure on the front office to deal him if they don't expect to compete next year. Since he's a one-year rental, he shouldn't be too terribly expensive. I think a couple decent prospects gets that deal done. Such a deal would be extremely tricky, with the Nationals currently stuck on McCutchen and Sale talks, but I think if he's still available once the dust settles, I expect Rizzo to give the Royals a call.
A quick interesting rumor running around is that the Nats are using the recently acquired Derek Norris as trade bait and, if he's traded, are willing to sign Wieters to be their catcher. This makes a lot of sense because, unless Melancon somehow signs back in D.C., Rizzo is fixing his team solely through the trade market. This saves the Lerners a lot of money, which could result in them being willing to overpay for Wieters in order to get a solid catcher. I don't think this would happen this week but it's worth keeping an eye on. Also keep an eye on Gio Gonzales and Espinosa, as I'm sure Rizzo can find a way to use them both as trade chips provided he can get McCutchen and Sale. Rizzo has a lot of pieces to work with to get big trades done and I expect him to do so sooner rather than later.
Friday, October 21, 2016
The Nationals Catcher Question
Catcher is, in my opinion, the biggest question mark for the Nats this offseason. To me, it looked like the Nats were going to re-sign Ramos before he tore his ACL. Now, there's absolutely zero chance he re-signs. Let's get that crazy idea out of here now. He won't be ready for spring training and will probably take until June to get back to full strength. Added onto that is that catcher's with ACL injuries have a horrible time coming back and playing catcher at a high ability again. Ramos knows this, which is why he admitted that being a DH in the AL is probably his best bet. This is exactly what will happen so, although we all love Ramos, it's time for him and the Nats to move on.
There's really three options I see here. The first, and probably the most likely, is that the Nats go with Severino and Lobaton for an in-house replacement. The second is getting another Boras client in Matt Wieters. The third is getting a typical All-Star hitting catcher in Jonathon Lucroy. This one is the least likely but is the most appealing to me.
The Lerners like to keep the opening day payroll right around $145 million. With all the arbitration-eligible players and picking up Gio's option (which should happen), that puts the Nats really close to $145 mil already. Because of this, the Lerners will probably look at Rizzo and ask him why he doesn't see Severino as a solid option. My argument is that this takes a strength the Nats had last year in Ramos with his amazing hitting and replaces it with a weak bat and an inexperienced player with Severino. For a team that should be in a dogfight for the division next year with the ever-improving Marlins and the pesky Mets, subtracting is extremely risky. I think Severino will be a solid catcher one day, but I HATE the idea of trying to force him into the starter role now when the Nats really need a proven bat to replace a big loss in Ramos.
IF Rizzo convinces the Lerners to get a catcher, the most likely scenario is signing Matt Wieters. He's a solid defensive catcher with a usually good bat. Because he had an off-year at the plate last year, his value went down so he should be cheaper (which is music to the Lerners' ears). He's also relatively injury-prone, which is good in that it makes him cheaper but bad in that we're replacing one injury-prone catcher with another. However, if the Lerners believe in Severino anyway, they could see an injury to Wieters just resulting in a trial for Severino.
Lucroy can happen if the Lerners weren't playing around last year when they went after Zobrist and Heyward as hard as they did. If they want to dish out some extra cash for this season, Lucroy could happen. He ALWAYS hits well, which is extremely rare for a catcher. His glove and arm aren't anything special, but his exceptional bat gives the Nats a solid offensive weapon and replaces an injury-ridden empty position with a solid offensive catcher who tends to stay very healthy. He's not gonna be cheap. His salary this year was only a tad under $5 million, but expect him to command Russell Martin money (I say somewhere around 4-5 years, $90 million). This would be an expensive signing, but it would also be the best.
I think there's about a 70% chance they stick with Severino/Lobaton, a 20% chance they go with Wieters, and only about a 10% chance Lucroy comes to DC. I'd love to see the Lerners prove me wrong and open up their check books again, but I just don't see that happening.
There's really three options I see here. The first, and probably the most likely, is that the Nats go with Severino and Lobaton for an in-house replacement. The second is getting another Boras client in Matt Wieters. The third is getting a typical All-Star hitting catcher in Jonathon Lucroy. This one is the least likely but is the most appealing to me.
The Lerners like to keep the opening day payroll right around $145 million. With all the arbitration-eligible players and picking up Gio's option (which should happen), that puts the Nats really close to $145 mil already. Because of this, the Lerners will probably look at Rizzo and ask him why he doesn't see Severino as a solid option. My argument is that this takes a strength the Nats had last year in Ramos with his amazing hitting and replaces it with a weak bat and an inexperienced player with Severino. For a team that should be in a dogfight for the division next year with the ever-improving Marlins and the pesky Mets, subtracting is extremely risky. I think Severino will be a solid catcher one day, but I HATE the idea of trying to force him into the starter role now when the Nats really need a proven bat to replace a big loss in Ramos.
IF Rizzo convinces the Lerners to get a catcher, the most likely scenario is signing Matt Wieters. He's a solid defensive catcher with a usually good bat. Because he had an off-year at the plate last year, his value went down so he should be cheaper (which is music to the Lerners' ears). He's also relatively injury-prone, which is good in that it makes him cheaper but bad in that we're replacing one injury-prone catcher with another. However, if the Lerners believe in Severino anyway, they could see an injury to Wieters just resulting in a trial for Severino.
Lucroy can happen if the Lerners weren't playing around last year when they went after Zobrist and Heyward as hard as they did. If they want to dish out some extra cash for this season, Lucroy could happen. He ALWAYS hits well, which is extremely rare for a catcher. His glove and arm aren't anything special, but his exceptional bat gives the Nats a solid offensive weapon and replaces an injury-ridden empty position with a solid offensive catcher who tends to stay very healthy. He's not gonna be cheap. His salary this year was only a tad under $5 million, but expect him to command Russell Martin money (I say somewhere around 4-5 years, $90 million). This would be an expensive signing, but it would also be the best.
I think there's about a 70% chance they stick with Severino/Lobaton, a 20% chance they go with Wieters, and only about a 10% chance Lucroy comes to DC. I'd love to see the Lerners prove me wrong and open up their check books again, but I just don't see that happening.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Outfield Help Needed
The Nationals NEED an outfielder. No one seems to think this is a pressing issue but I think it's one of their three major needs, the others being closer and, of course, a catcher.
Many people just say they should roll with the punches with Jayson Werth being an everyday player. I agree that Werth has proved himself time and again that he can still produce as he ages and should be respected as an everyday player. However, his injury history isn't questionable. If you're being realistic, you can expect anywhere from 80 to 120 games next year. I'd prefer to not leave up to half a season with a bench player playing everyday in the outfield. Adding another outfielder gives you the luxury of having Werth serve as either a 4th outfielder or, more likely, an everyday one when healthy and Dusty can use the versatility of some players (a la, Trea Turner) to switch the lineup around and keep everyone fresh.
This is why I want Ian Desmond back. In case you lived under a rock last year, Desmond followed up a terrible first month of the season with 5 months of All-Star baseball. Not to mention the defensive stats love him as a CF. This move makes the most sense; he has a playing history with the Nats, he can play CF or SS, allowing Werth to still play when healthy, and he can add pop to either the top or the bottom of the order. One bad season in DC shouldn't blind Rizzo or us as fans to how good Desmond has consistently been throughout his career. Although he's a streaky hitter, he can completely carry a team when he's on which is what you saw this year in Texas.
Yoenis Cespedes is obviously another top target the Nats can (and I think will) go for. If you believe the reports, he almost signed with DC last offseason before coming back to the Mets on a one year deal. All he did was hit .280 with 31 HRs and 86 RBI. He's a quality, consistent power hitter who can ideally play any outfield position. He's not gonna be cheap but considering the Nats threw a lot of money at players last offseason before coming up empty on Zobrist and Heyward, I have reason to believe that not only do they have lots of money left in the bank, but the Lerners appear to be willing to open up the check book for a few big deals. If Cespedes happens, I see Turner moving back to SS and having an OF of Werth/Harper/Cespedes left to right (although Cespedes and Harper will probably switch between CF and RF). This allows Espinosa to become exactly what he should be: a solid third middle infielder with some pop off the bench and who can make a solid defensive play late in the game. This would be a great situation to be in.
Personally, my money is on Cespedes specifically because I believe the Lerners want to make a splash and robbing another key performer from your biggest rival is a good way to do it. Either move is great with me, I'm just hoping one of those two happens.
Many people just say they should roll with the punches with Jayson Werth being an everyday player. I agree that Werth has proved himself time and again that he can still produce as he ages and should be respected as an everyday player. However, his injury history isn't questionable. If you're being realistic, you can expect anywhere from 80 to 120 games next year. I'd prefer to not leave up to half a season with a bench player playing everyday in the outfield. Adding another outfielder gives you the luxury of having Werth serve as either a 4th outfielder or, more likely, an everyday one when healthy and Dusty can use the versatility of some players (a la, Trea Turner) to switch the lineup around and keep everyone fresh.
This is why I want Ian Desmond back. In case you lived under a rock last year, Desmond followed up a terrible first month of the season with 5 months of All-Star baseball. Not to mention the defensive stats love him as a CF. This move makes the most sense; he has a playing history with the Nats, he can play CF or SS, allowing Werth to still play when healthy, and he can add pop to either the top or the bottom of the order. One bad season in DC shouldn't blind Rizzo or us as fans to how good Desmond has consistently been throughout his career. Although he's a streaky hitter, he can completely carry a team when he's on which is what you saw this year in Texas.
Yoenis Cespedes is obviously another top target the Nats can (and I think will) go for. If you believe the reports, he almost signed with DC last offseason before coming back to the Mets on a one year deal. All he did was hit .280 with 31 HRs and 86 RBI. He's a quality, consistent power hitter who can ideally play any outfield position. He's not gonna be cheap but considering the Nats threw a lot of money at players last offseason before coming up empty on Zobrist and Heyward, I have reason to believe that not only do they have lots of money left in the bank, but the Lerners appear to be willing to open up the check book for a few big deals. If Cespedes happens, I see Turner moving back to SS and having an OF of Werth/Harper/Cespedes left to right (although Cespedes and Harper will probably switch between CF and RF). This allows Espinosa to become exactly what he should be: a solid third middle infielder with some pop off the bench and who can make a solid defensive play late in the game. This would be a great situation to be in.
Personally, my money is on Cespedes specifically because I believe the Lerners want to make a splash and robbing another key performer from your biggest rival is a good way to do it. Either move is great with me, I'm just hoping one of those two happens.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Season Over
I figured I'd jot down my thoughts while they're fresh on my mind before I sulk in my misery.
We just witnessed an absolutely legendary playoff game. This wasn't your typical game 5. We saw a closer throw more pitches than he's ever thrown in an MLB game before, we saw an ace who just thre 110 pitches two days ago (which was also on short rest) come in and record his first ever save, and we saw the most pitching changes ever in a division series. This game will be talked about for a long time for how strange and intense it was all the way through. That's only going to make this loss even harder to deal with.
The Nationals lost because they didn't cash in with runners in scoring position. You can point to about a billion other things that went wrong but if this doesn't go wrong, the Nationals win. Period. Three times the Nationals had a runner on 3rd with only 1 out and all three times they struck out. Twice this was with Werth and just for the record, none of those three runs scored the next batter either. So that's three runs left off the board and if those runs are on the board instead, this post is very different. You simply can't not cash in with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. It's a fundamental skill to score a run in that situation and they couldn't get it done. That's why they lost.
Dave Roberts pulled all the right strings. He called on Carlos Ruiz at just the right time yet again to get a go-ahead single in the 7th and then, as we all know, his moves to keep Jansen in that long and bring Kershaw in for the save both worked. It was extremely unconventional managing that got them the win and essentially made this game legendary. People will remember years from now about a closer throwing over 50 pitches and an exhausted ace getting the 2 biggest outs of the year. Roberts did everything right.
Dusty Baker is now 0-9 in potential series-clinching games. I don't believe managers have a huge impact on teams during the regular season because over the course of 162 games, I strongly believe that the quality of the players is what leads to the final win total and not anything the manager does. However, in the playoffs when your season is now shrunk into 5 or 7 games, the manager's every move can be the difference between a WS title and an early exit. I don't know enough about Dusty's earlier series-clinching losses to comment but I can't put any of the blame on these last two on him. In game 4 he had no good options for a starting pitcher and one of his best relievers, who's normally very good on lefties, allowed a winning RBI single to the lefty Chase Utley. Tonight, the moves he made generally worked. Heisey hit a pinch-hit homer and then Robinson followed that up with a single when he was just brought into the game for Zimmerman. The bullpen really let him down in the 7th but he got the matchups he wanted - except for Justin Turner. Turner has actually hit better against righties his ENTIRE CAREER. This is a memo I guess Dusty missed because he kept playing with fire all series by bringing in righties to face him and he finally got burned in the 7th with a 2-run double. This was his biggest mistake of the game and, although I think he shouldn't have made it, his other moves were solid and it's not his fault his players forgot how to lift lazy flyballs to the outfield when needed. This loss isn't on Dusty.
Well there's always next year, but as a DC sports fan I'm left knowing that I'll be repeating this exact sentence again in a year. It was a fun year of baseball for both my teams and they both came up a little short. The difficulty of winning a pennant is how baseball makes you fall in love with it so much and with that comes massive disappointment when you fall short. The Nationals and Orioles both still have a solid core group of players coming back for next year so it should be another exciting season. Let's just hope they let us down a little easier next time.
We just witnessed an absolutely legendary playoff game. This wasn't your typical game 5. We saw a closer throw more pitches than he's ever thrown in an MLB game before, we saw an ace who just thre 110 pitches two days ago (which was also on short rest) come in and record his first ever save, and we saw the most pitching changes ever in a division series. This game will be talked about for a long time for how strange and intense it was all the way through. That's only going to make this loss even harder to deal with.
The Nationals lost because they didn't cash in with runners in scoring position. You can point to about a billion other things that went wrong but if this doesn't go wrong, the Nationals win. Period. Three times the Nationals had a runner on 3rd with only 1 out and all three times they struck out. Twice this was with Werth and just for the record, none of those three runs scored the next batter either. So that's three runs left off the board and if those runs are on the board instead, this post is very different. You simply can't not cash in with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. It's a fundamental skill to score a run in that situation and they couldn't get it done. That's why they lost.
Dave Roberts pulled all the right strings. He called on Carlos Ruiz at just the right time yet again to get a go-ahead single in the 7th and then, as we all know, his moves to keep Jansen in that long and bring Kershaw in for the save both worked. It was extremely unconventional managing that got them the win and essentially made this game legendary. People will remember years from now about a closer throwing over 50 pitches and an exhausted ace getting the 2 biggest outs of the year. Roberts did everything right.
Dusty Baker is now 0-9 in potential series-clinching games. I don't believe managers have a huge impact on teams during the regular season because over the course of 162 games, I strongly believe that the quality of the players is what leads to the final win total and not anything the manager does. However, in the playoffs when your season is now shrunk into 5 or 7 games, the manager's every move can be the difference between a WS title and an early exit. I don't know enough about Dusty's earlier series-clinching losses to comment but I can't put any of the blame on these last two on him. In game 4 he had no good options for a starting pitcher and one of his best relievers, who's normally very good on lefties, allowed a winning RBI single to the lefty Chase Utley. Tonight, the moves he made generally worked. Heisey hit a pinch-hit homer and then Robinson followed that up with a single when he was just brought into the game for Zimmerman. The bullpen really let him down in the 7th but he got the matchups he wanted - except for Justin Turner. Turner has actually hit better against righties his ENTIRE CAREER. This is a memo I guess Dusty missed because he kept playing with fire all series by bringing in righties to face him and he finally got burned in the 7th with a 2-run double. This was his biggest mistake of the game and, although I think he shouldn't have made it, his other moves were solid and it's not his fault his players forgot how to lift lazy flyballs to the outfield when needed. This loss isn't on Dusty.
Well there's always next year, but as a DC sports fan I'm left knowing that I'll be repeating this exact sentence again in a year. It was a fun year of baseball for both my teams and they both came up a little short. The difficulty of winning a pennant is how baseball makes you fall in love with it so much and with that comes massive disappointment when you fall short. The Nationals and Orioles both still have a solid core group of players coming back for next year so it should be another exciting season. Let's just hope they let us down a little easier next time.
Quick Pre-Game Post
This is it. The biggest reason I'm hoping they come up with the win is that this would stop all the "Nationals can't get get it done in the postseason" nonsense.
A few key points for Dusty's lineup today. He's hitting Harper second again in order to evenly split lefties and righties. I don't have a problem with this and I think hitting Harper higher up in the order is better solely so he gets more ABs. In game 5 in 2012 he hit a triple and a homer and then in 2014 he hit 3 homers in 4 games against the Giants. So far this series he's been solid, working long ABs and taking walks. He seems to get it done when the brights shine the brightest so let's hope that happens.
Danny Espinosa is still starting over Stephen Drew. I agree with this call although I can see why some might disagree. I see Espinosa being in as a defensive call. In a game 5, any defensive miscue can cost you the season and with his track record, Espinosa is pretty much automatic over at SS. Plus if Espinosa gets a meatball, he can ride into one and put up runs quickly. I believe this Ais the right call.
Lobaton over Severino. Again I think this is the right call. Lobaton is the veteran and already has a homer in this series while Severino is 1 for 8. I think Lobaton is more comfortable with Scherzer and this is the biggest reason Baker went with him.
Okay here we go. Fasten your seat belts.
A few key points for Dusty's lineup today. He's hitting Harper second again in order to evenly split lefties and righties. I don't have a problem with this and I think hitting Harper higher up in the order is better solely so he gets more ABs. In game 5 in 2012 he hit a triple and a homer and then in 2014 he hit 3 homers in 4 games against the Giants. So far this series he's been solid, working long ABs and taking walks. He seems to get it done when the brights shine the brightest so let's hope that happens.
Danny Espinosa is still starting over Stephen Drew. I agree with this call although I can see why some might disagree. I see Espinosa being in as a defensive call. In a game 5, any defensive miscue can cost you the season and with his track record, Espinosa is pretty much automatic over at SS. Plus if Espinosa gets a meatball, he can ride into one and put up runs quickly. I believe this Ais the right call.
Lobaton over Severino. Again I think this is the right call. Lobaton is the veteran and already has a homer in this series while Severino is 1 for 8. I think Lobaton is more comfortable with Scherzer and this is the biggest reason Baker went with him.
Okay here we go. Fasten your seat belts.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Do or Die
If you don't dive too deep into the games, this series has gone as expected. The Dodgers won both Kershaw games and the Nats won with Roark and then with their lefty, Gio Gonzalez. As I'm sure you're all aware though, this series has been completely off what we expected. Kershaw had two mediocre starts and not a single starter has put up a quality start. Yesterday was a chance for the Nats to end it and they didn't, but Kershaw was always going to be tough even on short rest. They touched him for 5 runs but 3 of those were scored when the bullpen couldn't record an out before letting all three of his inherited runs score. The Nats fought back but just didn't quite have enough. Now they go back to DC for a dreaded game 5 with their $210 million man pitching. You'd have to say they're favored. A bit more about yesterday's game now.
Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy are saving this offense. Jayson Werth was amazing on Tuesday and really everyone's chipped in a little (even Danny Esmendoza), but without Turner and Murphy doing what they've been doing, the Nationals are home by now. Turner got on three times yesterday and scored all three times. Personally I don't care that every AB he doesn't get on ends in a strikeout because he's hitting over .300 this series and every time he DOES get on, he typically scores. He's become an absolute menace in the leadoff spot and I'd have to think the Nats see him as their leadoff hitter for years. He's an exciting kid to watch. Murphy has also been amazing (which I'm sure many of you expected). He continues to pound postseason pitching and makes it look easy. Another 3 RBI again yesterday was awesome. It still baffles me that the Nats got him for about $13 mil a year. That's chump change for what they've gotten (which is an MVP-caliber season, even though I don't think he'll actually win it).
No starter has been good yet. This is extremely surprising to me considering the Nats offense is very hot or cold, so I expected Kershaw or Hill to have a couple solid outings by now. Instead, the best start we've seen from either team is Kershaw's 5 IP, 3 ER in game 1 which is by all accounts a bad start. Joe Ross was absolutely horrible yesterday, less than 3 innings with 4 ER. I wasn't surprised by this and I don't think you should've been either. He's just recently coming off an injury so his arm strength isn't where it's normally at. Combine that with the lefty-heavy lineup the Dodgers have and the fact that Ross allows lefties to hit 90 points higher than righties hit him and this start spelled trouble. There wasn't really a good option for Dusty to go to in this game so I think Ross with Lopez ready when needed was the right call, it just didn't go their way. That being said, I fully expect Scherzer to turn it on for game 5 and produce a quality start. I'm expecting about 7 innings with 2 runs or less. You'd have to say anything less is a disappointment, considering he's your ace, this is the biggest game of the year, and he's getting paid $15 million a year with a $15 million a year pension plan for 7 years after his contract is up.
Both bullpens are amazing. With how disappointing the starters have been, both teams bullpens have been exceptional. The Nats bullpen has only given up 1 run (!) in 4 games so far. Unfortunately for them, that was a run they couldn't afford to let in as it cost them the game yesterday. Take away Jansen's horrible outing on Tuesday in a non-save situation and the Dodgers pen has been nearly as good.
The Cubs beating the Giants is great for two reasons. One being that the game Thursday is now during prime time and there's no other series alive. The entire baseball world will be watching and if any player doesn't want that kind of attention, then they're in the wrong profession. The other reason, which is much much more important, is that this stupid even year nonsense can finally stop.
Thursday will either be extremely fun or heart crushingly disappointing. That's the nature of elimination games. I'm excited to see what happens.
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