Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Do or Die

If you don't dive too deep into the games, this series has gone as expected. The Dodgers won both Kershaw games and the Nats won with Roark and then with their lefty, Gio Gonzalez. As I'm sure you're all aware though, this series has been completely off what we expected. Kershaw had two mediocre starts and not a single starter has put up a quality start. Yesterday was a chance for the Nats to end it and they didn't, but Kershaw was always going to be tough even on short rest. They touched him for 5 runs but 3 of those were scored when the bullpen couldn't record an out before letting all three of his inherited runs score. The Nats fought back but just didn't quite have enough. Now they go back to DC for a dreaded game 5 with their $210 million man pitching. You'd have to say they're favored. A bit more about yesterday's game now.

Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy are saving this offense. Jayson Werth was amazing on Tuesday and really everyone's chipped in a little (even Danny Esmendoza), but without Turner and Murphy doing what they've been doing, the Nationals are home by now. Turner got on three times yesterday and scored all three times. Personally I don't care that every AB he doesn't get on ends in a strikeout because he's hitting over .300 this series and every time he DOES get on, he typically scores. He's become an absolute menace in the leadoff spot and I'd have to think the Nats see him as their leadoff hitter for years. He's an exciting kid to watch. Murphy has also been amazing (which I'm sure many of you expected). He continues to pound postseason pitching and makes it look easy. Another 3 RBI again yesterday was awesome. It still baffles me that the Nats got him for about $13 mil a year. That's chump change for what they've gotten (which is an MVP-caliber season, even though I don't think he'll actually win it).

No starter has been good yet. This is extremely surprising to me considering the Nats offense is very hot or cold, so I expected Kershaw or Hill to have a couple solid outings by now. Instead, the best start we've seen from either team is Kershaw's 5 IP, 3 ER in game 1 which is by all accounts a bad start. Joe Ross was absolutely horrible yesterday, less than 3 innings with 4 ER. I wasn't surprised by this and I don't think you should've been either. He's just recently coming off an injury so his arm strength isn't where it's normally at. Combine that with the lefty-heavy lineup the Dodgers have and the fact that Ross allows lefties to hit 90 points higher than righties hit him and this start spelled trouble. There wasn't really a good option for Dusty to go to in this game so I think Ross with Lopez ready when needed was the right call, it just didn't go their way. That being said, I fully expect Scherzer to turn it on for game 5 and produce a quality start. I'm expecting about 7 innings with 2 runs or less. You'd have to say anything less is a disappointment, considering he's your ace, this is the biggest game of the year, and he's getting paid $15 million a year with a $15 million a year pension plan for 7 years after his contract is up. 

Both bullpens are amazing. With how disappointing the starters have been, both teams bullpens have been exceptional. The Nats bullpen has only given up 1 run (!) in 4 games so far. Unfortunately for them, that was a run they couldn't afford to let in as it cost them the game yesterday. Take away Jansen's horrible outing on Tuesday in a non-save situation and the Dodgers pen has been nearly as good.

The Cubs beating the Giants is great for two reasons. One being that the game Thursday is now during prime time and there's no other series alive. The entire baseball world will be watching and if any player doesn't want that kind of attention, then they're in the wrong profession. The other reason, which is much much more important, is that this stupid even year nonsense can finally stop. 

Thursday will either be extremely fun or heart crushingly disappointing. That's the nature of elimination games. I'm excited to see what happens.

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