Monday, December 5, 2016

Update: Kevin Kiermaier?

Just a quick update post before the GMs finally decide to go to bed. Apparently, according to multiple sources, a Sale to D.C. trade is imminent. The package the White Sox are getting is believed to include Giolito and Robles, plus a little more. That's a pretty hefty haul, but Sale is under contract for 3 more seasons and he's pitched over 200 innings nearly every season, while pitching like an All-Star. Meanwhile, Giolito is projected to be a 3 starter to an ace (his stock dropped a bit last year so most expect him to be more of a 3 than a 1 but nonetheless the stock is still high) while Robles is projected to be a .280-.300 hitter in the majors with speed and a good glove in center. Both are solid prospects but such a trade makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons.

The first reason is that Robles had a great season in low A at the age of 19, which is awesome, but that's the only real data any team has on him so far. There's legitimate excitement about him being an MLB CF one day, but at the earliest that would be in 2018. Giolito is projected to max out at the skill level Sale is already at. 3 years of sale in exchange for more years of maybe at best Sale and maybe at best a solid CF is a trade I'll take any day. This gives the Nats a scary good rotation of Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg, Roark, and presumably Ross (until he gets dealt too). This makes the Nationals rotation amazing, which is a definite sign of a win-now mentality by Rizzo and the front office.

Now, the word on the streets is that the Nats weren't willing to give up Robles for McCutchen. With Robles presumably being in the package for Sale, the Nats clearly value Sale a LOT more than they value McCutchen. This doesn't mean that any McCutchen deal is off, but it does mean that it's much less likely to happen now. In response, apparently the Nats are asking the Rays about the price on CF gold glove maestro Kevin Kiermaier. Unfortunately for Rizzo, the asking price was apparently really high. I wouldn't in any circumstance trade a solid package to the Rays for Kiermaier that the Pirates would take for McCutchen. Both have team-friendly contracts, but McCutchen absolutely rakes while Kiermaier is above average. Kevin gets most of his value with his glove, which would solidify a suspect outfield including Jayson Werth. However, McCutchen can still provide a solid glove with much more offensive production. The Kiermaier rumors are still very fresh, so I don't expect a lot of news or development on this front for awhile. But it's interesting that the Nats are now looking for other, non-McCutchen options for their outfield

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