Catcher is, in my opinion, the biggest question mark for the Nats this offseason. To me, it looked like the Nats were going to re-sign Ramos before he tore his ACL. Now, there's absolutely zero chance he re-signs. Let's get that crazy idea out of here now. He won't be ready for spring training and will probably take until June to get back to full strength. Added onto that is that catcher's with ACL injuries have a horrible time coming back and playing catcher at a high ability again. Ramos knows this, which is why he admitted that being a DH in the AL is probably his best bet. This is exactly what will happen so, although we all love Ramos, it's time for him and the Nats to move on.
There's really three options I see here. The first, and probably the most likely, is that the Nats go with Severino and Lobaton for an in-house replacement. The second is getting another Boras client in Matt Wieters. The third is getting a typical All-Star hitting catcher in Jonathon Lucroy. This one is the least likely but is the most appealing to me.
The Lerners like to keep the opening day payroll right around $145 million. With all the arbitration-eligible players and picking up Gio's option (which should happen), that puts the Nats really close to $145 mil already. Because of this, the Lerners will probably look at Rizzo and ask him why he doesn't see Severino as a solid option. My argument is that this takes a strength the Nats had last year in Ramos with his amazing hitting and replaces it with a weak bat and an inexperienced player with Severino. For a team that should be in a dogfight for the division next year with the ever-improving Marlins and the pesky Mets, subtracting is extremely risky. I think Severino will be a solid catcher one day, but I HATE the idea of trying to force him into the starter role now when the Nats really need a proven bat to replace a big loss in Ramos.
IF Rizzo convinces the Lerners to get a catcher, the most likely scenario is signing Matt Wieters. He's a solid defensive catcher with a usually good bat. Because he had an off-year at the plate last year, his value went down so he should be cheaper (which is music to the Lerners' ears). He's also relatively injury-prone, which is good in that it makes him cheaper but bad in that we're replacing one injury-prone catcher with another. However, if the Lerners believe in Severino anyway, they could see an injury to Wieters just resulting in a trial for Severino.
Lucroy can happen if the Lerners weren't playing around last year when they went after Zobrist and Heyward as hard as they did. If they want to dish out some extra cash for this season, Lucroy could happen. He ALWAYS hits well, which is extremely rare for a catcher. His glove and arm aren't anything special, but his exceptional bat gives the Nats a solid offensive weapon and replaces an injury-ridden empty position with a solid offensive catcher who tends to stay very healthy. He's not gonna be cheap. His salary this year was only a tad under $5 million, but expect him to command Russell Martin money (I say somewhere around 4-5 years, $90 million). This would be an expensive signing, but it would also be the best.
I think there's about a 70% chance they stick with Severino/Lobaton, a 20% chance they go with Wieters, and only about a 10% chance Lucroy comes to DC. I'd love to see the Lerners prove me wrong and open up their check books again, but I just don't see that happening.
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